The Dairy Desk

CME

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as of —

BUTTER

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as of —

NASS

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week ending —

BASIS

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30-day avg —

CLASS IV

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Implied —

CME daily spot vs NASS weekly survey

NASS NDPSR is a weighted-average of prior-week sales — it lags CME spot.

CME spot NASS weekly 20-day MA Month avg

Basis (CME − NASS)

Positive = CME above survey

Class IV — announced vs implied

Implied uses monthly CME NFDM avg + monthly butter avg (not the daily CME butter tile below)

CME butter daily spot ($/lb)

Grade AA, report 1603 — a different series (and period) than the monthly butter avg the Class IV calc above uses

NFDM weekly sales volume

NDPSR reported lbs — demand trends often lead price moves

Data source health

How current each feed is vs. its own expected update cadence — not every source updates daily, so "stale" means later than that source's normal schedule, not just old.

CME daily spot vs NASS weekly survey — detail

All data in $/lb NFDM

CME spot NASS weekly 20-day MA Month avg

Basis spread — CME minus NASS ($/lb)

Positive = CME leading; negative = CME below survey

Class IV sensitivity constant
From 0.99 × 9 × 0.965 — every ¢/lb move in NFDM shifts Class IV by:

$0.0860 / cwt

FMMO Class IV formula

Applied monthly with CME NFDM spot avg and NASS butter avg

Class IV = (Skim × 0.965) + (BFat × 3.5)
Skim = ((NFDM − $0.1678) × 0.99) × 9
BFat = (Butter − $0.1715) × 1.211
Make allowances: NFDM $0.1678/lb · Butter $0.1715/lb · Yields: Skim ×9 · BFat ×1.211

Announced vs implied Class IV ($/cwt)

Announced from USDA FMMO; Implied from CME monthly + butter

Announced Implied

FRONT MONTH

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BACK MONTH

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CURVE

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front-to-back spread

NFDM futures curve

CME GNF settlement prices by contract month · dashed line = current CME cash spot

Settlement CME cash spot

Settlement detail

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SPOT (EST.)

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CME cash spot × 3.2

FRONT (EST.)

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BACK (EST.)

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Milk protein forward curve (estimate)

Estimated milk protein price = NFDM futures settlement × 3.2, by contract month · dashed line = current CME cash spot × 3.2

Milk protein (est.) Spot × 3.2

Estimate detail

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SNAPSHOTS

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daily curves archived

SETTLED

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months with actual data

MAE

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mean absolute error

BIAS

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avg signed error

Futures vs actuals

Predicted settlement price vs realized CME monthly average — each line is a snapshot's forward curve

Actual monthly avg Futures predictions Current curve

Error by prediction horizon

How accurate are futures N months ahead? Bars = MAE, dots = bias

Prediction scatter

Each dot = one prediction. X = predicted, Y = actual. Line = perfect accuracy

Accuracy by horizon

Comparing futures settlement prices against realized CME spot monthly averages. More snapshots = richer analysis.

Lock-vs-float decision support for forward NFDM bookings — not advice. For each forward quarter: where the curve prices it, how cheap/rich that is vs the last 5 years of CME spot, and how reliable the futures have historically been at that horizon (bias, error, directional hit-rate, sample size). NFDM only — whey/lactose have no futures market. Curve reliability is robust at ~1–3 months and thin beyond; far quarters carry a low-sample tag and sharpen automatically as daily curve snapshots accumulate.

Forward quarter booking signal

Curve price · percentile vs history · curve reliability at that horizon · suggested lean

Contract-month detail

Per-contract curve price, percentile vs 5-yr spot, horizon, and historical curve bias

CURRENT

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5Y AVG

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same week, 5-year avg

PERCENTILE

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within 5-year range

NASS NFDM seasonal overlay

Current year vs prior years — shaded band = 5-year min/max range

NFDM PROD

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latest month

NFDM STOCKS

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end of month

BUTTER STOCKS

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cold storage

MILK PROD

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total U.S.

NFDM production

Monthly manufacturing volume (million lbs)

NFDM stocks

End-of-month inventory (million lbs)

Butter production & cold storage

Monthly volume and end-of-month stocks (million lbs)

Total U.S. milk production

Monthly volume (billion lbs)

Supply data

Source: USDA NASS QuickStats. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

TOTAL EXPORTS

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latest month

YEAR OVER YEAR

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vs same month prior year

TOP DESTINATION

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share of latest month

TRAILING 12M

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rolling 12-month total

NFDM/SMP exports by destination

Monthly export volume, top 5 buyers + rest of world (million lbs)

Total monthly exports

All destinations (million lbs)

Destination mix

Share of monthly volume by buyer (%)

Export detail

Source: U.S. Census Bureau international trade data, HS 040210 (milk & cream in powder, ≤1.5% fat). Released roughly 5-6 weeks after month end.

SPOT

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current ¢/lb

USD/KG

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current $/kg

CURVE

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front-to-back spread

Sugar #11 daily spot (¢/lb)

ICE raw sugar futures — front-month continuous contract (SB=F)

Sugar #11 futures curve

ICE SB settlement prices by contract month

Futures detail

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SPOT

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current $/mt

USD/LB

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current $/lb

CURVE

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front-to-back spread

NY Cocoa daily spot ($/metric ton)

ICE US cocoa futures — front-month continuous contract (CC=F)

Cocoa futures curve

ICE CC settlement prices by contract month

Futures detail

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Public market indications — not executed buyer prices. Ranges are drawn from USDA Dairy Market News. WPC34 is a formally published range; WPC80 and WPI are read from the weekly market narrative. USDA data is confidentially collected from manufacturers, end users, brokers, and traders. Midpoints are indications before freight and conversion costs, not executable quotes or transaction-weighted averages. This product uses USDA data but is not endorsed or certified by USDA.

Whey market overview

USDA Dairy Market News weekly indications · WPC80 · WPI · WPC34 · Dry Whey · Lactose · low / midpoint / high + week-over-week change

Whey booking lean — direction and conviction, not a forecast. Whey has no futures market and, so far, only a handful of weeks of published USDA history — not enough for a curve-implied or seasonal target price the way NFDM's Booking Signal works. This reads the trailing published weeks per category, classifies the move as Softening / Firming / Range-bound, and flags conviction by checking whether sibling whey categories moved the same way over the same weeks. No target price for any future quarter is shown here; the signal will only get sturdier as weekly history accumulates.

Whey booking lean

Trailing trend per category · direction (softening / firming / range-bound) · conviction from cross-category corroboration

WPC80 market call — one analyst-style guess, not a forecast or a recommendation. This is a different thing from the Whey booking lean above: a single blended number produced from whatever signals exist this week — WPC80's own trend, a dampened version of that trend, and a cross-check against the NFDM forward curve — reasoned through and logged every week so it can be scored against realized prices once the target quarter's history actually publishes. It does not carry the Softening/Firming/Range-bound lean or the conviction badges used above; those answer a different question and shouldn't be read as agreeing or disagreeing with this number.

WPC80 market call

Blended guess · range across methods · full reasoning trail, updated weekly

Weekly call log

One entry per week — the record this call gets scored against once real data catches up

Recent CME daily spot ($/lb)

Recent CME butter daily spot ($/lb)

Grade AA

Recent NASS weekly survey ($/lb)

Class IV announced prices ($/cwt)

Butter column is the monthly NASS average, not the daily CME series above